Bubble Index

Housing Lab estimates that Norwegian house prices were overvalued by about 16 percent at the end of 2019Q3. After a period where the gap between actual and fundamental prices narrowed, the distance has again increased. Housing Lab concludes that the Norwegian housing market is overvalued.

About the index

Housing Lab estimates fundamental house prices for Norway and compare them to the evolution of actual house prices. Fundamental house prices are determined by real per capita income, real after tax interest rates, and the housing stock per capita. Our estimates of fundamental prices are updated and published on a quarterly basis. Due to lags in the construction of the National Accounts data used to estimate fundamental prices, our estimates lag by one quarter. The underlying methodology is  based on published research and is documented in Anundsen (2019).